It is commonly said that “Time heals all wounds” and yet few historians give time credit for solving anything but the Ice Age.
Under Boris Yeltsin from 1991 to 1999, Russia was in economic chaos, desperately adapting to its new freedoms. Russia stabilized under Vladimir Putin. The result: Most Russians give credit for the calm to Putin, and not to the eight years of post-totalitarian adjustment.
Similarly, Iraq was in various stages of chaos from 2003 through 2006. Iraq calmed down dramatically in 2007 as President Bush introduced “the surge” of U.S. troops. “The surge” gets the credit. Few attribute the pacification to time itself.
Attitude change. Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who has just published his memoir “Known and Unknown,” believes “the surge” had a part in Iraq's success, but he argues that by 2007 time had changed Iraqi society enough to drastically reduce the insurgents’ opportunities for mischief and murder.
The Wall Street Journal:
Mr. Rumsfeld thus takes an unorthodox view of the significance of President Bush's surge, which began to take effect in early 2007. He argues that by 2006 things were, in fact, improving in Iraq. The Anbar Awakening—which Mr. Rumsfeld credits as beginning in the fall of 2006—“had convinced a lot of Sunnis they didn't want to be associated with al Qaeda,” and “the government of Iraq was evolving the ability to take on some of the radicals” with the help of Iraqi security forces that had become “very capable.”As a result, he argues, the force of President Bush’s surge was as much “psychological” as anything else. “The president's decision galvanized the opinion in Iraq. It said: ‘Look, if you think it is going to go to the insurgents, you are wrong.’” The fact of the statement, argues Mr. Rumsfeld, mattered as much as did the increase of troops “tactically or strategically.”
Though viewed by many as the spear of Mr. Bush’s “freedom agenda,” Mr. Rumsfeld also expresses misgivings about “nation-building.” He disagrees with the “Pottery Barn rule”—attributed to Mr. Powell—that “if you break it, you own it,” arguing Iraq was already broken under Saddam. While he acknowledges that the U.S. had security obligations to Iraq, he expresses discomfort with Mr. Bush’s broad promises for democracy, and he worries that countries too frequently develop an overreliance on the U.S.
Buying time. It’s true that time alone cannot cure everything, especially if you’re in a hurry. In the case of nation-building, a newly liberated population needs at least a decade free of chronic anti-democratic intimidation if it is to develop the good habits of freedom. (And considering the experience with Germany, Japan and South Korea, the average time might be much longer than a decade.)
Before, during and after “the surge,” the United States armed forces gave the Iraqis indispensable time to undo Saddam's damage. At great sacrifice, our GIs continue to expose Iraq to the great healer.
Frank Warner
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