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« Army veteran: U.S. can be proud of victory in Iraq | Main | ‘Big Love’ gets intense »

February 21, 2010

Comments

jj mollo

Technically, there have been four recessions since 1980. 1991 was a recession year.

Period ................. Months
Jan. 1980-July 1980 .... 6
July 1981-Nov. 1982 .... 16
July 1990-March 1991 .. 8
March 2001-Nov. 2001 .. 8

jj mollo

The fifth recession started in 2007 and probably ended last year. We won't have the official word on that for a year or two.

According to Wikipedia:

A December 1, 2008, report from the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007 (when economic activity peaked), based on a number of measures including job losses, declines in personal income, and declines in real GDP.[50] By July of 2009 a growing number of economists believed that the recession may have ended.[51][52] The National Bureau of Economic Research will not make this official determination for some time. In the 2001 recession, for example, the recession ended in November 2001, but it was not until July 2003 that the NBER announced its official determination.[53]

jj mollo

I don't think it has as much to do with financial conditions as it has to do with good government. Philadelphia has had reduced crime under some mayors and increases under others. Demographics and social issues probably matter. The crack epidemic starting in the mid-eighties was a big problem. Once it was addressed, or once kids decided to stay away from crack, who knows which, it started to go back down.

Two philosophical changes seem to have made a difference. The first is statistical monitoring and response to crime patterns. The second is placing more emphasis on petty crimes and incivilities, the broken windows idea. Rudy Giuliani is famous for the second approach. He pushed out the "window washers", and the crime rate went down.

Frank Warner

Certainly many factors went into the reversal of the murder rate since 1991.

But since the economy started expanding in 1983, there were only two very minor recessions until 2008. It was the smoothest economy in generations, and certainly those 25 years gave lots of families the time, confidence and incentives to develop those good habits.

I think the "broken window" policies of Giuliani and others are given too much credit. It's a lot easier to stop crime, and a lot easier to have a public ethos against crime, when the economy gives everyone no good reason to commit a crime.

The aging of Baby Boomers has an effect, as do our bulging prisons. And don't forget the general cynicism caused by the Vietnam War and Watergate, and exacerbated by the oil crises of the 1970s.

I used to blame much more of the rising murder rate (from the 1980s) on the breakdown of the two-parent family. That remains a powerful factor, but history appears to show that a long and smooth economy can even mitigate (not erase) the ill effects of bad childhoods.

Lcdr J. Waters, USCG/USN - dis./dis.

Sara Tokars was the 69th victim in Fred Tokars' murder-spree. The previous 68 were committed with John Snodgrass, Douglas Collins, and Tom Tobin, at the direction of Ted Turner, Jon Tisch, and Henry Hill-Silverman. This group murdered 60 in Miami in the 1970's.

Other than Tokars, the others remain free, rich, and at large. Like Tokars, Tobin is a judge/mediator/attorney in Atlanta.

Collins and Snodgrass became the pres. and CEO of Days Inn hotels. Snodgrass now races Porches in a Florida auto-racing circuit. Collins is now CEO of Americas Best Inns.

These 4 men, in their 20's at the time of the crimes, most of the 1970's, perpetrated:

1) Miami's "Hepatitis Murders" - 20 dead.
2) Miami's "Building Toss Murders" - 20 dead
3) Miami's "Miami Rampage Murders" - 20 dead.

In 1978, July, they shot up West Imperial Terminal at LAX, killing 2 and wounding 6.

They also wounded 11 in a shooting at a Miami Burger King.

Then, in the 1980's they murderred 6 U.S. Army via "induced liver failure", the E.S.A.D. method used in their previous "Hepatitis Murders".

These matters are confirmed by police. Sara knew and had had enough.

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