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« Salim Hamdan, bin Laden aide, was tortured with McDonald’s French fries | Main | Mamma Mia, James Bond is human! »

July 28, 2008


Christopher Taylor

Because polls are crap - everyone of them - except the one that actually counts.


Obama has become the biggest faith-based initiative in American politics.

Great line .. but too long for a bumper sticker

jj mollo

Polls are actually pretty good. IMO, the reason that elections have been so close in recent years is that candidates change their speeches and even their "beliefs" to accommodate the polls. They live and die by the numbers. The result is that the contest often gets closer and closer, but varies depending on which candidate reads which poll.

"Likely voters" is a better sample frame than registered voters, but the problem with that is that the likelihood of a person voting changes from year to year. There is no way to measure "reliability of intention" for any particular voter subgroup. Well, I guess it could be measured, but these things get more and more expensive as the complexity increases, and the results might not be back in time to impact the current election.

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