Cut through the static. If you want to know when American troops can start withdrawing in significant numbers from Iraq, you need to know when the Iraq army will have more than 250,000 men.
Unfortunately, the Iraq army has only 152,000 men and it grows ever so slowly. To defend all of Iraq effectively, experts say, the Iraq army -- separate from the Iraqi national police -- should have 300,000 to 400,000 troops. The army would begin to take a lead role once it has at least 250,000.
The good news is, the Iraq army’s preparedness is improving, according to a new report of a 20-member group of retired senior officers, the Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq, headed by Marine Gen. James L. Jones, former U.S. commander in Europe.
(The Jones report also says Iraq’s national police are so dysfunctional and so corrupted by sectarian loyalties that they should be disbanded. The Pentagon disagrees, saying the police should be kept, but with better training and leadership.)
Improvement expected. The report says:
“The commission assesses that in the next 12 to 18 months there will be continued improvement in their readiness and capability, but not the ability to operate independently. Evidence indicates that the ISF [Iraqi Security Forces] will not be able to progress enough in the near term to secure Iraqi borders against conventional military and external threats.”
So the Iraq army won’t be able to take over a lead role in Iraq’s defense for at least a year. It’s not that it’s hard to attract Iraqi recruits. According to the Jones report, Iraqis are joining up. But the training, equipping and deploying of new brigades is much more complicated.
CNN summarizes other findings in the report:
* The Defense Ministry "is building the necessary institutions and processes to fulfill its mission. However, its capacity is hampered by bureaucratic inexperience, excessive layering, and overcentralization. These flaws reduce the operational readiness, capability, and effectiveness of the Iraqi military."
* The Iraqi army and special forces "possess an adequate supply of willing and able manpower and a steadily improving basic training capability" and "are making efforts to reduce sectarian influence within their ranks and are achieving some progress. Substantial progress can be achieved to that end."
* The "Iraqi air force's relatively late establishment hampers its ability to provide much-needed air support to ground operations" but "it is nonetheless progressing at a promising rate during this formative period."
* "The Iraqi navy is small and its current fleet is insufficient to execute its mission. However, it is making substantive progress in this early stage of development."
Independence and freedom. Earlier this year, it appeared the Iraq army would have at least 250,000 troops by the end of 2008. I’m not sure if Iraq remains on target for 250,000 before 2009, but we’d better aim for it. For the independence and security of Iraq’s new democracy, that’s the most important benchmark.
Frank Warner
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