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October 03, 2005

Comments

jj mollo

Frank,

Since the variance attributable to random effects is greater than the differences you are talking about, no conclusions can be drawn from the results. Quoting myself from http://frankwarner.typepad.com/free_frank_warner/2005/06/major_league_ba.html> your post of June 3: “If the number of homeruns at the end of the year is between 4,750 and 5,950, then it's safe to say, by traditional statistical standards, that nothing important has changed. The background noise has drowned out any clear effect.”

It's hard to find effects when you're only looking at 7 years of predictive data. You need more data or more variables.

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