When President Obama declared Oct. 21 that he was removing all U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of this year, my first thought was, That’s the end of Israel.
My second thought was, That’s the end of a democratic Iraq. It’s the return of the Iraq war.
I still feel that way. I hope I’m wrong.
The early signals aren’t good. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who could afford to be tolerant of minorities when U.S. forces held the balance of power in Iraq, on Dec. 18 ordered the arrest of his Sunni vice president, Tariq al-Hashemi, on a charge of planning political assassinations.
That could be just the beginning of the splintering of Iraq, as many of the majority Shiites no longer feel tied to their constitutional obligations to share power.
So why did we leave Iraq after only eight years -- or really, only three years after the fascists lost the war? There’s no good reason, except that our State Department did not make it a high enough priority to reach an agreement that could have kept a U.S. stabilizing force there at least five more years.
We didn’t leave Germany three years after World War II. We didn’t leave Japan. We didn’t leave South Korea immediately after the Korean War. The result: All of those nations are free, prosperous and at peace.
For reasons of politics and incompetence, we’re out of Iraq, and despite headlines that the “Iraq war is over,” Iraq is seeing a new wave of violence.
Iraq easily could devolve into dictatorship or descend into civil war. The risks are unforgivably high, when there would be no risk had 30,000 or 40,000 U.S. troops stayed behind.
Democracy does not take root with one round of elections. The institutions of freedom and tolerance appear only after at least three changes of power at the highest levels. The first power change is a test; the second, the learning of a habit. By the third, a democracy understands its checks and balances.
Democratic Iraq hasn’t had one change of power. (Maliki is the second prime minister, but his Al Dawa party is the same as the first prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who wasn’t around long.) Iraq is going to struggle hard when the first change comes. The United States won't be there, as it was in Germany, Japan and South Korea, to help it along toward change that strengthens Iraqi freedom.
Then there’s Israel, that one long-established Middle East democracy. Even with U.S. influence and Iraq's democratic framework, Iraq would be difficult to hold back if a demagogue were elected prime minister with a promise to help Iran wipe out the Jewish state.
Without U.S. influence, count on Iraq to start planning the invasion itself. Iran and Iraq don’t have much in common with Sunni Egypt, but all three Muslim nations might very well cooperate on the Israel elimination plan. Must we now start the countdown to the massacres and mushroom clouds?
If this sounds alarmist, it’s because there is cause for alarm. If it sounds bitter, it’s because it didn’t have to happen. Iraq was free and fairly calm. It was on its way to becoming the proof that Arab Muslims, long abused by despots, could thrive in democracy.
But America’s leaders looked at Germany and Japan and South Korea, and saw no lessons to apply.
Frank Warner
2011: The Year Obama Lost Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen, Lebanon and Most of the Middle East
Posted by: CJW | January 01, 2012 at 10:24 AM
McCain: Iraq 'Unraveling' Under Obama Pullout
Posted by: CJW | January 07, 2012 at 10:32 AM
great article, i can safely say i agree with everything you said
Posted by: bob | January 08, 2012 at 05:26 PM
Former Iraqi PM Allawi Corrects Obama: Iraq is “Neither Stable Nor Democratic” (Video)
Posted by: CJW | January 15, 2012 at 01:59 PM
We had to leave sometime. We must allow them to be as foolish as we are in our own governance.
Posted by: jj mollo | January 19, 2012 at 11:42 AM
US-based human rights group says Iraq is becoming a 'police state'
Posted by: CJW | January 22, 2012 at 10:33 AM
Why the U.S. Has Troops around the World
Posted by: CJW | January 22, 2012 at 11:53 AM
Iraq: Under Worse Management
Posted by: CJW | January 23, 2012 at 07:07 PM
Good links, all three.
Posted by: jj mollo | January 27, 2012 at 07:39 PM
well I don't think the Republicans could do any worse that the curnert group which reminds me of the characters in the bar scene from Star Wars. this election will not be decided by either base. The independents in the middle will decide it and whoever can influence them with the best, most plausible propaganda will win.
Posted by: Trapti | February 12, 2012 at 03:59 AM