To dump its tyrannical habits, Egypt has a long way to go

The Egyptian crisis probably will not end well for at least 10 years.

Eighty-two-year-old dictator Hosni Mubarak has a good chance of hanging onto power until his death, but even if he doesn’t last the year, there are too many despotic forces lined up against democracy and freedom in Egypt.

It sounded like a joke when Mubarak said he favored democracy and then he appointed a new cabinet for himself. Appointed officials, the Egyptians have plenty of. How about one or two elected officials, chosen by the people in free, fair and competitive elections?

Vice president. Mubarak last week even picked a vice president, a successor, which is something a dictator almost never does, for fear of showing a way to end his tyranny. That vice president, Omar Suleiman, is almost guaranteed the position of Egypt’s next dictator. And considering Suleiman is Egypt’s former chief of intelligence, there’s a good chance that once the riots calm, he’ll be arresting hundreds, if not thousands, of the riot leaders.

The alternatives to the Mubarak mob clinging to power are (A) a gathering of democratic forces to rewrite the Egyptian constitution and build the institutions of freedom and (B) a gathering of the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical Islamist forces to transform Egypt into another Iran, but with a Sunni flavor.

Things might work out if Egypt goes for an (A)-(B) hybrid, and the Muslim Brotherhood agrees to the elections, that is, free and regular elections every four or five years. In one scenario, the Muslim Brotherhood would win the first election, but unable to improve Egypt’s standard of living, it would be voted out in the second election, in favor of a more secular political party.

Israel politics. The real wild card is what a Muslim Brotherhood government would do to Israel. If the Muslim Brotherhood were in charge and it faltered on the Egyptian economy, could it pull an election-eve stunt by attacking Israel? Unfortunately, even among a large number of Egypt’s democrats, Israel is fair game. Such an attack could buy Egyptian radicals a second term, and might even become a ruse to establish a permanent theocratic dictatorship.

As the American experience with Iraq (and the Philippines, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Pakistan, Germany and Russia) shows, it takes years to wring out antidemocratic habits from an old dictatorship. Some factions of society oppose dictatorship only as long as they’re not the dictators. Many activists don’t understand that democracy requires a tolerance of political foes.

Still in chains, Egypt hasn’t even begun to know what freedom demands. Liberation is not at hand.

Frank Warner

Comments

[Chris Taus]

Mubarack is going to have two choices, stand and fight, literally, or hop in his helicopter, with his suitcases of gold and cash, and make a run to Venezuela, where Hugo will greet him with open arms and help him with his luggage...
The Muslim brotherhood is on a roll, at the moment, they have momentum...But that could suddenly change if Mubarack got really tough and decided to pacify the population by force...The only question then is if the military will obey him...He better keep that copter warmed up, things could change rapidly...

[Kevin]

Hmm. 82% of egyptians polled think female genital mutilation should be mandatory. 84% think stoning is the best punishment for adultery. 83% think death is the proper fate for leaving the Religion of Peace.

Are you sure we want democracy over there?

[Frank Warner]

Chris, I doubt Hugo Chavez, would-be dictator that he is, would welcome has-been dictator Mubarak to Venezuela. Chavez would rather join the Muslim Brotherhood to make sure democracy never takes hold in Egypt.

[Frank Warner]

Kevin, a society that keeps generation after generation in the dark produces that kind of stupid thinking. The Egyptians have the same right to be free that you do. Once Egypt has a generation of free debate, the views you mentioned will be minority views.