As Cairo riots: The what-if’s of modern Egypt

The pundits are going through all the “what-if’s” on Egypt, where young people right now are rioting against the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak, but no one is sure what would follow Mubarak if he is overthrown -- democracy, another (possibly theocratic) dictator or anarchy.

Next door, Israel is asking if Egypt is about to change for the worse. Israel, one of only two and half Middle East democracies (Iraq is one, Lebanon the half), already has heard Iran’s threats to erase Israel from the map. Syria would be more than happy to help Iran. And possibly Saudi Arabia and Yemen. And there is no guarantee that, even as a new democracy, Egypt would not join a coordinated attack on Israel.

The Egyptians have been unhappy with Israel since its rebirth after World War II. But they’ve been especially bitter since the 1979 Camp David Accords, in which Anwar Sadat got the Sinai Peninsula back from Israel, and over $1 billion in annual aid from the U.S., in exchange for Egypt’s promise never to attack Israel. Sadat was assassinated for signing the deal, and Egyptians remain angry the deal survives. They associate U.S. aid with that unpopular peace treaty and with the Egyptian dictatorship, which keeps most of the cash for itself.

What are the what-if’s?

What if President Obama had called forcefully for democracy in Egypt in his Cairo University speech in June 2009? Wouldn’t that message have steered the students’ energy more toward their own liberty and less toward death to infidels? Wouldn’t that have placed the United States on the side of Egypt’s young and restless?

What if President Bush had pushed harder for democracy in Egypt? Bush did try. But after Saddam Hussein fell and Iraq adopted its own democratic constitution, should Bush have capitalized more on the rising hopes for Arab freedom and demanded a detailed plan for liberalization from our Egyptian “ally”? Was the Bush-hating, anti-liberation faction of the U.S. Democratic Party too likely to sabotage a broader democracy agenda?

(And by the way, what if Bush hadn’t announced he favored giving the Palestinians their own country, in effect rewarding the Palestinians before they demonstated even minimal interest in peace with Israel’s democracy?)

Skipping back a few presidents, what if President Carter had not arranged Israel’s separate peace with Egypt in 1979, and demanded that all Arab nations be part of the treaty? By transfering Sinai back to Egypt, didn’t Camp David remove one of the two big bargaining chips -- Sinai’s return and possible Palestinian statehood -- from the Arab negotiating table? In radicalized eyes, hasn’t the Camp David treaty tarred Egyptians as Arab traitors? Egyptians don't like that image of themselves.

Lost time. What if President Truman and President Eisenhower had done better with the Middle East after World War II? Both made it clear they wanted the colonial powers to end colonialism, but what if they acted more quickly to demand that the newly independent Arab nations (and others, too) adopt democratic institutions?

What if Truman and Eisenhower had put the world’s new nations on a democratic path before the Soviet Union obtained a nuclear umbrella for Cold War tyranny? What if Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, and Klaus Fuchs hadn’t given the Soviet Union our atomic secrets?

History has a lot of what-if’s. We’re stuck with what-now’s.

Frank Warner

Comments

[CJW]

2005 Flashback: Condoleezza Rice Calls for Freedom and Democracy in Egypt (Video)

[Neo]

This is “Jimmy Carter Iran” redux. (Just as TIME is trying their best to make Obama into Reagan, they missed by one President)
Everybody hoped the new government would be better, but time has shown that “hoping is a fool’s errand.”

[Neo]

Looters destroy mummies during Egypt protests

... I've seen this movie before

[CJW]

It's Obama's Fault. Looters Break Into King Tut Museum & Destroy Artifacts

[CJW]

Has Obama been riding Mubarak over rights?

There is nothing this administration won't ie about.

[Neo]

What if Napoleon Bonaparte had a B-52 ?

[CJW]

Isn't time for this administration to throw more money at the problem? That's always the solution that's offered up.