George Will: If stimulus is less than half of the bill, vote no

If you’re trying to judge the $820 billion “stimulus” bill, but aren’t sure how to do it, read up on what the noted economists are saying. Then go by George Will’s rule.

Will, who recently hosted a dinner for President Obama, asks the skeptics to meet Obama half way:

“[T]he deference accorded this president should be proportional to his willingness to acknowledge that neither he nor anyone else can know whether the stimulus will work.

“And from the quantity of deference owed to him, Republicans should subtract the sum of the opportunism of congressional Democrats. If Republicans conclude that the truly stimulative portion of the legislation is less than half the size of the portion composed of banal and brazen opportunism, and irrelevant but consequential policies surreptitiously pursued, they should oppose it.”

In other words, support the bill if Obama and Congress can demonstrate that, in at least half of the bill, strict economic criteria were used to choose the spending and tax cuts that give us the best chance to pull out of this recession fast.

The usual, but more? But if most of the $820 billion appears to be simply more borrowing and spending on the kinds of things the government always borrows and spends on, plus a generous portion for political paybacks, then fight it.

This isn't advice for Republicans alone. It should be advice for Democrats alone, if they want to succeed. Of course, the majority Democrats in the House have already approved the bill. But the Senate has yet to vote.

So far, Congress has shown no evidence it has built anything especially advantageous into the $500 billion of spending in the bill. Little of the spending stands out as anything more likely to boost the economy than if no money were spent at all.

No time for stupidity. This is half a trillion dollars. Right now, America can’t afford a half-trillion-dollar mistake. And increasing numbers of economists are calling this bill a major mistake in the making.

Obama and Congress immediately should form a committee of mainstream economists to sort out the bill’s spending measures and decide whether any of the items should survive. The panel should make its recommendations within 60 days, and then Congress should act wisely.

Now, unless the Senate can work an instant miracle, the “stimulus” bill isn’t close to half right. It’s not even half thought-out. No one in his right mind would endorse it.

Frank Warner

Comments

[CJW]

But rather than take criticism and debate on a horrible bill, The One and his minions have decided to wage an advertising campaign to make the crap sandwich palatable for the average American citizen while demonizing the Republicans. So much for his post-partisan era. All talk. He must fail.

Democrats Target GOP Districts in Stimulus Ad Blitz

[jj mollo]

... increasing numbers of economists ...

Isn't that kind of like "increasing levels of violence" in Iraq? I hope it won't still be increasing when we run out of economists.

[Frank Warner]

The number of economists could only increase, because they generally had been shut out of the bill's preparation.

It appears the bill was written pretty much by self-serving politicians, advised poorly by a tiny band of partisan economists of dubious reputation.

If the bill had any reliable formula, other than "any borrowing and spending is good," I'd feel more confident. We need to hear from more mainstream economists outside of Washington to get this right.

[CJW]

And the rhetoric passed off as leadership plods on. He says he's inherited a huge deficit as he follows up with a statement that pretty much says he won't be outdone as he works to create a bigger deficit than anyone in the history of the world has created.

And the same old politics of fear that he and his party accused Bush of is in full force as they say we will have a sure catastrophe if we don't pass their "stimulus" bill now, even though they can't tell what parts will create jobs and what parts won't. It's like they're teenage girls the day after Thanksgiving and daddy has given them carte blanche to go spend at every mall in the country.

[jj mollo]

He has economists among his advisors and appointees. He also gets advice from the Council of Economic Advisors.
Here's a Bloomberg article on where Obiwan's stimulus cheerleaders are coming from.

I don't think they're all liberal ideologues.

[Frank Warner]

Yes, Obama chose that panel yesterday. He obviously hasn't been listening to Martin Feldstein.

I was trying to sort out who these (future) advisers were yesterday. Too many of them are simply Democratic partisans, but I would like to know what William Donaldson has to say about the "stimulus" bill.

Has Obama yet talked with anyone like Feldstein? And why name an advisory panel the same day he wanted the vote on the bill? That's a little late.

[jj mollo]

How did he pick these people if he hasn't been receiving economic advice somewhere?

[Frank Warner]

First, he looked at who had contributed to his campaign.

Then he said throw in some old Wall Street guys who look like they know something and won't complain about a bad bill.

Then somehow Feldstein slipped in.

[jj mollo]

Cynic.

[Frank Warner]

Ouch! I hate cynics! (I do.)

[jj mollo]

Frank,

Economists Larry Summers, Tim Geitner, Joseph Stiglitz, Austin Goolsbee, James Heckman, Paul Krugman, Peter C.B. Phillips, Olivier Blanchard, and yes Martin Feldstein, have all been cited as favoring the stimulus package. Stiglitz says it isn't big enough and contains too much tax cut.

Here's a Charlie Rose interview with Stiglitz and Martin Feldstein. Very interesting.

Among other things Feldstein says, "There's a pretty wide agreement that what is about to be done in therms of fiscal stimulus is what needs to be done." (28:05)

Here's a blogger who is trying to develop a list of economists for and against the stimulus package. And here's a similar list with analysis of macro-econonomists as to their position on the stimulus package.

[Frank Warner]

JJ,

That's a month ago. I understand Feldstein wants something big done, but is hugely unhappy with the way this bill shaped up in the last two weeks.

[Frank Warner]

Even Larry Summers, in calling for a stimulus last year, warned that its elements should be targeted, temporary and timely.

The sloppy bill before Congress doesn't really fit those criteria.

Scratch Krugman, the Democratic hack.

That leaves us with Joseph Stiglitz, who calls free market economists "free market fundamentalists."

Stiglitz, I find interesting. Check out his autobiography here. Not a bad writer for an economist.

http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2001/stiglitz-autobio.html