Iraq now has reached more than half of the “benchmarks” for success that the U.S. Congress gave it last year, Frederick W. Kagan at the American Enterprise Institute notes.
Kagan says that, by expanding its army, reducing sectarian violence, removing safe havens for terrorists and taking practical steps toward evenhandedness and reconciliation, the democratically elected Iraqi government is showing real progress.
The progress has occurred during the “surge,” which appears to have helped reduced significantly the casualties of war and sectarian strife. It comes as anti-victory voices claim the Iraqi leaders have “failed to take advantage of the breathing room” that U.S. and Iraqi forces gave them over the last nine calmer months.
17 of 18 with progress. Kagan says the Iraqis have used the “breathing room” well:
“As the tally ... shows, the Government of Iraq has now met 12 out of the original 18 benchmarks set for it, including four out of the six key legislative benchmarks. It has made substantial progress on five more, and only one remains truly stalled. One can argue about the scoring of this or that benchmark, but the overall picture is very clear: before the surge began, the Iraqi Government had accomplished none of the benchmarks and was on the way to accomplishing very few. As the surge winds down, it has accomplished around two-thirds of them and is moving ahead on almost all of the remainder. To say in the face of these facts that Iraq has made ‘little’ or ‘no’ political progress is simply false-to-fact.”
Here are the 18 benchmarks, which Congress approved in May 2007 as nonbinding goals in the U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans’ Care, Katrina Recovery, and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act, 2007. With each benchmark, you’ll see Kagan’s evaluation.
1. Forming a Constitutional Review Committee and then completing the constitutional review. NOT DONE, but under way.
2. Enacting and implementing legislation on de-Baathification. DONE, approved February 2008.
3. Enacting and implementing legislation to ensure the equitable distribution of hydrocarbon resources of the people of Iraq without regard to the sect or ethnicity of recipients, and enacting and implementing legislation to ensure that the energy resources of Iraq benefit Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs, Kurds, and other Iraqi citizens in an equitable manner. NOT DONE, NO PROGRESS, draft law is held up in parliament, but oil profits are being shared.
4. Enacting and implementing legislation on procedures to form semi-autonomous regions. NOT DONE, but moving ahead, and Kagan says it probably is a bad goal anyway.
5. Enacting and implementing legislation establishing an Independent High Electoral Commission, provincial elections law, provincial council authorities, and a date for provincial elections. DONE, approved March 19, 2008.
6. Enacting and implementing legislation addressing amnesty. DONE, passed Feb. 13, 2008.
7. Enacting and implementing legislation establishing a strong militia disarmament program to ensure that such security forces are accountable only to the central government and loyal to the Constitution of Iraq. DONE, but actual disarmament isn’t so easy.
8. Establishing supporting political, media, economic, and services committees in support of the Baghdad Security Plan. DONE.
9. Providing three trained and ready Iraqi brigades to support Baghdad operations. DONE, with more than three brigades.
10. Providing Iraqi commanders with all authorities to execute this plan and to make tactical and operational decisions, in consultation with U.S commanders, without political intervention, to include the authority to pursue all extremists, including Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias. DONE.
11. Ensuring that the Iraqi Security Forces are providing even handed enforcement of the law. NOT DONE, but some progress.
12. Ensuring that, according to President Bush, Prime Minister Maliki said ‘the Baghdad security plan will not provide a safe haven for any outlaws, regardless of [their] sectarian or political affiliation.’ DONE.
13. Reducing the level of sectarian violence in Iraq and eliminating militia control of local security. DONE.
14. Establishing all of the planned joint security stations in neighborhoods across Baghdad. DONE.
15. Increasing the number of Iraqi security forces units capable of operating independently. DONE.
16. Ensuring that the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature are protected. DONE, but difficult to measure.
17. Allocating and spending $10 billion in Iraqi revenues for reconstruction projects, including delivery of essential services, on an equitable basis. NOT DONE, but some progress.
18. Ensuring that Iraq's political authorities are not undermining or making false accusations against members of the Iraqi Security Forces. NOT DONE, but some progress.
Hey, 12 out of 18 benchmarks of political and security progress have been reached during a war. That’s not everything, but unless you want to lose, it is encouraging.
Frank Warner
Footnote: Members of the Iraq Study Group also have issued a report on Iraq’s progress during the “surge.” The report notes that “The Iraqi parliament has achieved some but not all of the benchmarks set out for it by the administration,” but the meeting benchmarks still has not done enough to bring Iraq’s factions together.
“The benchmarks were intended to serve as proxy indicators for a broader “national reconciliation,” i.e., a commitment among the majority of Iraq’s competing factions to fundamental principles about the Iraqi state. The benchmarks have not succeeded in this regard. The progress made has been the result of tactical horse-trading, which, though positive as far as it goes, has not alleviated the underlying causes of political instability in Iraq or facilitated the emergence of a truly united national polity….
“Political progress is so slow, halting and superficial, and social and political fragmentation so pronounced, that the U.S. is no closer to being able to leave Iraq than it was a year ago. Lasting political development could take five to ten years of full, unconditional commitment to Iraq....
“Even if progress in Iraq continues, the results may not be worth the cost.”
Update: It’s 15 of 18 now. Significant progress has been seen in achieving 15 of the 18 benchmarks for Iraq’s success. In July 2008, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad released its report finding that Iraq had not made significant progress only in the areas of benchmarks (iii), (vii) and (xi).
Those three poor marks indicate Iraq’s failure to enact and implement laws on fairly dividing up Iraq’s oil revenue; failure to disarm all militias and insurgent groups; and failure to improved the professionalism and even-handedness of the Iraqi police.
But in every other category, Iraq was making progress, as of May 2008, when the review was made. In July 2008, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad released its report finding that Iraq had not made significant progress only in the areas of benchmarks (iii), (vii) and (xi).
Those three poor marks indicate Iraq’s failure to enact and implement laws on fairly dividing up Iraq’s oil revenue; failure to disarm all militias and insurgent groups; and failure to improved the professionalism and even-handedness of the Iraqi police.
But in every other category, Iraq was making progress.
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