Free Frank Warner

The increasing realization that we’ve won the Iraq war

I knew we’d start seeing a bunch of Iraq war polls just before the fifth anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion.

Lo and behold, for the first time in years, a Pew poll finds that most Americans believe the U.S. effort in Iraq will succeed. Iraq will become a stable democracy, and its example may inspire liberalization and liberation throughout the otherwise repressed Arab and Persian Middle East.

By ratio of 53 to 39 percent, most Americans believe the second mission of the Iraq invasion – democratization – will work. (The first mission was to remove the fascist regime.)

Changing opinions. Most Americans – 54 percent – also say the decision to invade was wrong, but that opinion is primarily the effect of five years of partisan bickering, and the selfishness nurtured by appeasers who wanted Saddam Hussein and family to torture and murder Iraqis forever. With some perspective, opinions on the invasion decision will change, too.

President Bush has said American troops in Iraq would “return on success.” It’s good to see that success increasingly acknowledged.

Frank Warner

‘Chemical Ali’s’ execution is approved in Iraq

Nearly 5 years since the U.S. invasion of Iraq, “Chemical Ali” has been ordered executed.

“Chemical Ali” is Ali Hassan al-Majid, who played a major role in Saddam Hussein’s Anfal Campaign, which murdered nearly 180,000 Iraqi Kurds in 1988. Majid repeatedly used poison gas in the genocide against the Kurds.

Majid, a first cousin of Saddam Hussein, was captured in August 2003 and convicted of war crimes in June 2007. His execution was delayed to avoid Ramadan, but now Iraq’s presidential council has approved his death by hanging.

It appears he’ll soon be joining his cousin.

Frank Warner

Adam Gadahn, American al-Qaida who threatened Mavis Leno, may be dead

Adam Gadahn, the bonehead Californian who joined al-Qaida in 2003, once criticized Mavis Leno, Jay Leno’s wife, in a speech that threatened “punishment” for Islamist fascism’s foes.

Even before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Mavis Leno had called on the world to liberate Afghanistan from the Taliban’s brutal oppression, particularly of women. The Taliban and al-Qaida didn’t take kindly to the criticism.

Now a friend of Gadahn says Gadahn may be dead in Pakistan, his quest for gore and glory over.

Predator attack. Gadahn went missing on Jan. 29 at exactly the same time a Predator drone fired the missile killing Abu Laith al-Libi, al-Qaida’s chief in Pakistan. Libi was a Libyan.

Gadahn’s death has not been confirmed, but I think it’s safe to say he’s not having a good winter.

Frank Warner

Bob Geldof to George Bush: Learn to market the good you’ve done

Bob Geldof, the rock singer-humanitarian, recently flew to Africa with President Bush.

In nation after nation, Bush was welcomed as the hero behind several successful programs to improve the health of Africans. But according to Geldof, Americans have yet to hear what Bush accomplished there.

Geldof writes of a moment with Bush on Air Force One. Bush looked at a copy of Geldof’s new book:

The Most Powerful Man in the World studied the front cover. Geldof in Africa — “ ‘The international best seller.’ You write that bit yourself?”

“That’s right. It’s called marketing. Something you obviously have no clue about or else I wouldn’t have to be here telling people your Africa story.”

It is some story. And I have always wondered why it was never told properly to the American people, who were paying for it. It was, for example, Bush who initiated the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) with cross-party support led by Senators John Kerry and Bill Frist. In 2003, only 50,000 Africans were on HIV antiretroviral drugs — and they had to pay for their own medicine. Today, 1.3 million are receiving medicines free of charge.

Hope and hopelessness. Geldof isn’t all compliments. He believes U.S. military action to remove Saddam’s regime in Iraq renders impossible U.S. military action to save Africans in Darfur. And Geldof has no hope for helpful action by “the rest of the world.”

Frank Warner

Ahmadinejad says Iran is worlds No. 1 power

Great! Good or bad, democrat or dictator, the No. 1 is the only thing that upsets Noam Chomsky.

Frank Warner

Angelina Jolie says we have ‘moral obiligation’ to stay in Iraq

As the most zealous defeatists continue to argue that the United States must abandon Iraq because liberation is too costly, actress Angelina Jolie concludes we can’t afford to leave.

She makes a point seldom made on Iraq, that withdrawing wouldn’t end the war, that it would expose millions to murder, starvation and the desperation that makes more war, bigger wars, more savage wars more likely.

Jolie, a goodwill ambassador for the U.N. High Commission for Refugees, just returned from her second trip to Iraq. She says this:

My visit left me even more deeply convinced that we not only have a moral obligation to help displaced Iraqi families, but also a serious, long-term, national security interest in ending this crisis.

Today’s humanitarian crisis in Iraq — and the potential consequences for our national security — are great. Can the United States afford to gamble that 4 million or more poor and displaced people, in the heart of Middle East, won’t explode in violent desperation, sending the whole region into further disorder?

What we cannot afford, in my view, is to squander the progress that has been made. In fact, we should step up our financial and material assistance. UNHCR has appealed for $261 million this year to provide for refugees and internally displaced persons. That is not a small amount of money -- but it is less than the U.S. spends each day to fight the war in Iraq. I would like to call on each of the presidential candidates and congressional leaders to announce a comprehensive refugee plan with a specific timeline and budget as part of their Iraq strategy.

As for the question of whether the surge is working, I can only state what I witnessed: U.N. staff and those of non-governmental organizations seem to feel they have the right set of circumstances to attempt to scale up their programs. And when I asked the troops if they wanted to go home as soon as possible, they said that they miss home but feel invested in Iraq. They have lost many friends and want to be a part of the humanitarian progress they now feel is possible.

Squirming haters. Jolie’s is a message of realism and humanitarianism to which the liberation-haters won’t take kindly. They’ll squirm and whine, and try to belittle her, but they know she’s right.

If your whole political self-image of coolness is wrapped up in proving this political approach or that political party always wrong, you’ll do all you can to block out her words and pretend that wherever the U.S. leaves everything always gets better.

If U.S. military presence is so terrible, why are the Germans, Japanese and South Koreans still generally happy to have us in their countries after all these years? The answer is obvious.

Neighbors in need. Iraq is free, but the Iraqis are vulnerable. If their democracy is to survive, if they’re to have a chance for a lasting peace, they’ll need our help for a while.

Frank Warner

Posting problems, sorry

There seem to be some posting problems. Yesterday, I could neither publish a post or add a comment.

TypePad is working on the problem. I believe you now can post comments with no problem. Hey, give it a try!

Frank Warner

Obama on Social Security

Sen. Barack Obama does have a plan for Social Security.

The Democratic candidate said he would not raise the national retirement age, cut benefits or privatize Social Security.

Instead, he would lift the cap on the payroll tax. Under the current system, the tax is capped at $97,000, which means the richest people in the nation are paying a similar tax rate than their poorer counterparts.

Mr. Obama said he would also help retirees by developing automatic workplace retirement plans. Such plans would allow employers to directly deposit money into a retirement account. The company could match additional contributions made by employees. The government would match contributions on the first $1,000 for families making less than $75,000 a year.

“We have to encourage savings so it’s easy to retire,” Mr. Obama said. “This would put a secure retirement within greater reach for millions of working families.”

Mr. Obama said he also would develop ways to protect pensions and work to prevent “golden parachutes” for executives fleeing a sinking company.

Sen. Hillary Clinton has addressed Social Security by saying it is not in crisis, even as it heads for a withering crisis in 2017. She proposes a new 401(k) plan that sounds a lot like Obama’s plan. And both sound a lot like privatizing Social Security.

Frank Warner

McCain rebukes the mocking emphasis on Obama’s middle name

This is a classy move. John McCain today told his supporters he won’t tolerate the sleazy references to Barack Obama’s middle name, which happens to be Hussein.

Obviously, some people are giving the Hussein name added emphasis in order to imply that Obama is Muslim. He isn’t. Cut the crap.

Frank Warner

Kim Jong Il wants Eric Clapton to play in North Korea

North Korea’s megalomaniacal dictator Kim Jong Il is trying to get Eric Clapton to come to North Korea to play “Layla” for Kim’s son.

Careful, careful! Sometimes Kim doesn’t let artists leave.

It would be a scream if Clapton surprised Kim and sang “I’m so rone-ry” from the “Team America” movie. I think we’d hear the scream.

Frank Warner

Note: The New York Philharmonic is in North Korea right now!

Hollywood finally has seen through Michael Moore’s fascist propaganda

Michael Moore, propagandist to the dictators, lost last night in his bid for an Oscar with “Sicko,” a “documentary film” attempting to make Fidel Castro’s health-care system look appealing.

Castro, who summoned a surgeon from Spain when he fell ill in 2006, has a disaster of a health system. It’s free to everyone, but it has almost no medicine or equipment. The Cuban health statistics look impressive, but who provides those statistics? Castro’s flunkies. Yet Michael Moore isn’t skeptical at all when it comes to the despot.

As usual, Moore gives the benefit of the doubt to murdering tyrants who enslave whole nations. He’s free to spread his lies of happiness in chains, but as a result of his free exercise, Moore prolongs oppression in half the world.

Frank Warner

Surprise! Cuba’s Communists pick a Castro to succeed Castro

With the Cuban Communist National Assembly’s choice of Raul Castro to succeed Fidel Castro as dictator, the Castro mob remains in place. Same ol’, same ol’ family-run police state.

Just imagine how scared those 600 Assembly members must be. They know no Cuban wants Raul as ruler, and yet all the forces of totalitarianism force them to vote for another tyrant. Pick Raul or die.

How about involving the 11 million Cuban people in choosing a national leader? How about letting more than one party -- instead of the Castro mob alone -- take part in an election campaign? How about libertad?

Frank Warner

EU already is abandoning Kosovo

Last week, the European Union offered strong words of support for Kosovo’s independence from Serbia. But as usual, the EU is counting on defending its position to the last American. It’s tiptoeing backwards toward the door.

Hopes for a peaceful conclusion to the declaration of Kosovo’s independence were fading as the European Union announced it had withdrawn its staff from the north of the fledgling country in the face of increasingly angry Serb protests. …

Yesterday [Feb. 23] Peter Feith, the EU's Kosovo envoy, said security concerns were behind the withdrawal of his staff from northern Kosovo. They had been preparing the ground for a 2,000-strong EU rule of law mission. “I would like to appeal to the Serb community to be generous and to turn the page and look forward to working together with us,” he said. “We hope that conditions will soon allow us to resume our activities.”

Nibbled away. The Europeans say they’re counting on NATO and the United Nations’ KFOR peacekeepers, but the Europeans really are thinking: let the United States handle the hard work, and the likely violent reactions and nasty objections to military force. Right now, the EU is preparing to abandon only northern Kosovo, but this new country is only a quarter the size of Denmark to start. Once it starts giving up pieces, it faces a nibbling annihilation.

Feb. 23 marked six days since Kosovo claimed its independence. It has to be record time for Europe to send up the white flag. The reflex must be well-ingrained.

Frank Warner

Andrew Sullivan piles on Hillary

Andrew Sullivan has no mercy for Hillary Clinton’s crumbling campaign:

Once put in a fair contest, they turned out to be terrible campaigners, terrible politicians, bad managers, useless executives, wooden public speakers. If you're a Democrat, that's good to know, isn't it? All that bullshit about Day One and experience? In retrospect: laughable.

Whatever happens in this campaign, if it finally puts the Clintons in our rear-view mirror, it will have been worth a great deal. We're not quite there yet, and the moment you feel any sympathy for a Clinton, they will use it to their own ends. But I'm enjoying the backward glance, however long it lasts. We're nearly free of them. Nearly.

What Obama faces. After a string of odd presidential election campaigns, this one is surprisingly surprising. Without a sitting president or vice president in the race, the campaign at first seemed to be wide open and full of hope for new faces. Only one new face showed up, Barack Obama’s, and his face seems almost too new, too inexperienced.

Yet, considering the sentiments of people like Sullivan, I’d give Obama the best chance to win the nomination in August and the presidency in November.

Frank Warner

Washington, where are the architects?

I was just down in Washington, D.C., yesterday, and I wasn’t impressed with the ugly barriers that are blocking off our national monuments from terrorists.

It’s been more than six years since the 9/11 attacks, and this is the best we can do? Ugly highway dividers sloppily surrounding the Lincoln Memorial? Yes, we need solid barriers to keep out vehicles full of explosives, but can’t someone come up with a design that looks a little more graceful?

Again, our architects seem to be sleeping.

Frank Warner

Salute Ralph Nader’s persistence

My old boss Ralph Nader is running for president again. I voted for him in 2004, and who knows what I’ll do this time. But just don’t let me hear again that lame accusation that he’s running out of lunacy or ego.

I certainly didn’t need to hear Sen. Barack Obama taking a shot at a man whose hard work and good deeds tower over the few accomplishments Obama can claim. How did Obama think Nader supporters would feel yesterday when he said:

“My sense is that Mr. Nader is somebody who, if you don’t listen and adopt all of his policies, thinks you’re not substantive. He seems to have a pretty high opinion of his own work.”

Decades of advocacy. If you want an “agent of change,” Nader always has been the leader to go to. If you want the ultimate anti-lobbyist, Nader is that person. For more than 40 years, he has done more than anyone else to give Congress and the people the facts that lobbyists didn’t want heard.

My sense is, Nader is not going to affect Obama’s (or Hillary Clinton’s) chance of winning the presidency. But if Obama wants those Nader votes, he sure has a poor way of showing it.

Frank Warner

The Times' weak story on John McCain

I'm inclined to believe The New York Times would not have run today's story on John McCain unless it included that hint of illicit sex. And yet, there was nothing there.

No one said he had an affair with Washington lobbyist Vicki Iseman, and no one said he ever even did her a favor. Oddly, because McCain doesn't bill himself as a goody-two-shoes, the talk of an affair actually might win him votes. Makes him look younger!

Frank Warner

Bullet hits bullet: They said it couldn’t be done

Remember 25 years ago, when the appeasers said Ronald Reagan’s idea of hitting an incoming missile with a missile was impossible? Well, the United States did it.

We did it on Oct. 14, 2002, when an interceptor missile launched from the Marshall Islands hit a Minuteman missile launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Actually, before that, we did it in five smaller-scale tests dating to 1999.

And last night, with a disabled spy satellite descending toward the Earth full of explosive and toxic fuel, we launched an SM-3 missile at the spacecraft from the cruiser USS Lake Erie. Over the Pacific Ocean, the missile chased that bus-size satellite, moving 17,000 miles an hour, and blew it into thousands of harmless parts.

Ready for a miss. Had that missile missed, you can be sure that today’s mainstream media would be sounding off in indignant tones with all sorts of theories that President Bush’s cowboy swagger had humiliated the nation.

But we hit the falling bus, and everyone on the ground is safe. Bush’s name won’t be mentioned.

Frank Warner

SM-3 missile hits falling satellite

Well, we hit it!

If one foreigner can enter the U.S. 14 times illegally, what are the court costs?

Imagine the court costs in handling an illegal immigrant 14 times.

Omar Alaverez-Mecedo, age 22, was arrested and charged with Human Smuggling, a class three felony, and operating a vehicle without a valid driver's license, a class two misdemeanor.

In the course of the investigation it was discovered that “Omar Alaverez-Mecedo’s” real name is Israel Robles-Gaytan.

According to ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement], Robles-Gaytan had already been caught and deported fourteen times; he gave law enforcement officials a different name each time.

14 times 14. Note that Robles-Gaytan was bringing in 13 other foreigners who also had no permit to be here, so depending on what he was doing the other 13 times he was here illegally, that could translate to one man causing 14 times 14 problems. What are the costs of dealing with that?

As the Jawa Report observes:

Kidding aside, it’s difficult to understand how border patrol and immigration agents maintain any enthusiasm for their jobs. Everything they do seems to be automatically undone.

Frank Warner

The Castro mob has lost its muscle

On my claim that Cuba soon will be free, commenter TomK59 writes:

Whoa, Frank. Nothin’s gonna change- at least not for awhile. His brother, and the whole apparatus, will still be in place.

Commenter George responds:

I suspect something will change immediately. Now is the time. No sense waiting for his brother to consolidate his power.

Tom, listen to George.

For the Cuban people, this is their best chance since 1959 to claim their freedom. The apparatus remains in place, but not the whole apparatus. It’s all bones and little muscle. The charisma has become cancer, the ideology is dead, the big lie is exposed.

Leader in waiting. Just as Fidel Castro plotted against Batista from 1953 to 1958 in the remote villages of Cuba and in Mexican exile, other leaders soon will be stepping forward to demand an end to the dictatorship now. The first few will be murdered or imprisoned. In fact, that’s already happened. It will happen again as Raul Castro and his flaks cling to power, fearing trials and executions under democratic justice.

But with a population fed up with tyranny and painfully aware that golden opportunities can pass them by, the Cubans will find a leader to toss out the Castro mob. As Mel Martinez is saying, “One Castro down, one to go.”

Let’s just hope the next Cuban leader doesn’t crown himself slave-master, as the last one did.

Frank Warner

This is it: Fidel Castro steps aside

There's no doubt that Fidel Castro wanted to keep Cuba under his personal rule for a full 50 years. But now, 49 years into his totalitarian nightmare, he has decided to step aside. Obviously, he is near death.

He is quoted in the Castro-run newspaper Granma as saying he will not accept the position of "president" when the National Assembly "chooses" Cuba's next dictator in five days.

During his grave illness, Castro, 81, gave his 76-year-old brother Raul 19 months to take personal control of the police state, to put loyal lackeys in important posts and to remove any official he could not trust. I doubt the transition will let Raul maintain the dictatorship. Since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Cubans have been increasingly impatient for freedom and democracy, but they were willing to wait for Fidel to die, rather than directly challenge Fidel's deadly oppression.

Fidel is preparing to die. The day of the Castro slave state is nearing an end. Cuba soon will be free.

Frank Warner

Kosovo declares independence

Good.

Screw Putin.

Update: Now the United States, Britain and France recognize the new Kosovo! Once again, the U.S. stands up for the right of Muslims to be free.

Frank Warner

In the ‘South Pacific’ musical, why doesn’t the Navy know they’re fighting for freedom?

I love the musical “South Pacific,” but one thing always bothers me when I see it. When Emile de Becque asks the U.S. Navy and Marine officers what they’re fighting for in World War II, they can’t come up with an answer.

Can someone explain this? Why wouldn’t they say, we’re fighting for freedom? Two years after Pearl Harbor, these Americans don’t know what they’re fighting for?

This is an important point in the drama, which was written four years after the war by Oscar Hammerstein II and Joshua Logan as their adaptation of two short stories in James A. Michener’s book, “Tales of the South Pacific.” (The movie version came out exactly 50 years ago, with Rossano Brazzi, Mitzi Gaynor, John Kerr, Ray Walston, Juanita Hall and France Nuyen.)

‘As simple as that.’ In the scene in question, Navy Capt. George Brackett, Commander Bill Harbison and Marine Lt. Joseph Cable ask de Becque to accept a dangerous mission. They want de Becque, a French planter who’s been living in the Solomon Islands for about 16 years, to help Lt. Cable monitor and report on Japanese ship convoys.

De Becque (Brazzi) resists the idea. His girlfriend, American nurse Ensign Nellie Forbush (Gaynor), is on his mind.

De Becque: “My answer must be no. When a man faces death, he must weigh values very carefully. He must weigh the sweetness of his life against the thing he is asked to die for. The probability of death is very great for both of us. I know that island well, Lieutenant Cable, and I’m not certain that I believe that what you ask me to do is -- is that -- ”

Capt. Brackett: “We’re asking you to help us lick the Japanese. It’s as simple as that. We’re against the Japanese.”

De Becque: “I know what you are against. What are you for?”

(In an awkward silence, Brackett, Cable and Harbison offer no answer.)

De Becque: “When I was 22, I thought the world hated bullies as much as I did. I was foolish. I killed one. I was forced to flee to an island. Since then I have asked no help from anyone, or any country. I have seen these bullies multiply and grow strong, and the world sat by and watched.”

Lt. Cable: “Oh, the hell with this, de Becque! Let’s be honest. Aren’t you just a guy in love with a girl, and you’re putting her above everything else in the world?”

De Becque: “Yes, I do care about my life with her more than anything else in the world. It is the only thing that is important to me. This I believe in. This I’m sure of. This I have. I cannot risk to lose it. Good day, gentlemen.”

(De Becque leaves the officers’ office.)

Cmdr. Harbison: “He’s an honest man, but he’s wrong. Of course we can’t guarantee him a better world if we win. The point is, we can be sure it’ll be worse if we lose, can’t we? (Silence from Brackett and Cable) Well, can’t we?”

Capt. Brackett: “I don’t know.”

Oblivious to liberty. “I don’t know”? The Frenchman wanted just one good reason to risk his life. He wanted to know what the Allies were fighting for. Yet these three American officers couldn’t come up with anything better than, “We’re against the Japanese.”

In the middle of World War II, they can’t come up with the word liberty. They can’t imagine what enslaved Chinese, Filipinos, Koreans and others -- How about the French? -- are dying for that very day. They can’t remember one speech by Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Four Freedoms or even the Declaration of Independence.

Their backs are against the wall. They desperately need de Becque’s help. They need powerfully persuasive words. But they’re tongue-tied. They don’t have a clue.

Words believable here? In fact, de Becque gives them a better argument than they put up -- that the bullies multiply if the world sits by and does nothing. But Brackett, Cable and Harbison don’t pick up on it. They’re stupefied.

After de Becque has left the room, Harbison almost figures it out when he says we can be sure the world will be worse if we lose. But then Capt. Brackett says darkly, “I don’t know.”

I don’t get it. Can someone please explain the logic of this dialogue? How does it ring true in any way? How could three American officers be this dumb?

The earlier scene. Keep in mind, just one scene earlier, de Becque himself said he has faith in freedom. Nellie Forbush, whom the officers had asked to collect information on de Becque, delved into his beliefs.

Nellie Forbush: “Do you think about politics much, and if so, what do you think about politics?”

De Becque: “I -- do you mean -- do you mean my political philosophy?”

Forbush: “I think that’s what I mean.”

De Becque: “Ah, well, to begin with, I -- I believe in the free life, in freedom for everyone.”

Forbush: “Like in the Declaration of Independence?”

De Becque: “It says, ah, ‘all men are created equal.’ Isn’t that it?”

Forbush: “Emile, do you really believe that?”

De Becque: “But of course, Nellie.”

Forbush: “Well, thank goodness.”

De Becque: “That’s why I am here, why I killed a man.”

Plot of despair. Obviously, de Becque is a man predisposed to accept the argument that freedom must win over tyranny. Three Americans in this musical don’t seem to know that tune. Only the naive Nellie Forbush has the sense to mention the Declaration of Independence.

Later, Forbush’s prejudice over de Becque’s Polynesian children gives her cold feet about marrying him, so he does go with Lt. Cable on that dangerous mission.

But why does despair have to motivate de Becque? Why was he not asked to weigh his hope for freedom?

Frank Warner

* * *

See also: In ‘South Pacific,’ why does Emile de Becque finally agree to the dangerous mission?

Maliki declares ‘victory’ over al-Qaida in Baghdad, thanks United States

Another clear victory has been won in Iraq.

Iraq’s prime minister declared “victory in Baghdad” yesterday, claiming U.S. and Iraqi troops have chased al-Qaida in Iraq out of the capital in the year since a security crackdown began, and vowing to pursue insurgents who have fled northward. …

In remarks broadcast on state television, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki thanked the U.S. military and its allies for “standing with us in defeating terrorism.”

Who says liberation is a thankless job?

Frank Warner

Newark had no murders for a month!

It's sad that this is news, but at least it's a month of good news. For the first time in 45 years, Newark, N.J., has just had a month with no murders.

Actually, it wasn't a calendar month. But for 33 straight days from Jan. 14 through Feb. 15, the city had no homicides. That's more than a month, and it hasn't been that quiet since the Kennedy administration.

Keep it up, Newark!

Frank Warner

Gallup: At last, Obama has the Democratic lead

The Gallup Poll finally gives Barack Obama a statistically significant lead over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationwide.

Barack has the support of 49 percent of Democrats, according to a Feb. 13-15 survey. Clinton has 42 percent.

This primary season has been wild to witness. Obama certainly has the inside track right now, but the Democrats' nomination could be a photo finish. And then there's the general election. Who says politics is boring?

Frank Warner

Who are these superdelegates?

According to the Los Angeles Times, the Democrats' 796 "superdelegates" "include former presidents, the party faithful, white- and blue-collar workers -- and the unemployed."

The common characteristic: None of the "superdelegates" was chosen by a democratic election, and with the elected delegates almost evenly split between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, these random elements this year could decide the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

Frank Warner

Should we shoot down the falling satellite?

The conspiracy theories already are flying: The U.S. wants to shoot down the falling spy satellite to intimidate the world. The U.S. wants to shoot the satellite for reckless fun. The U.S. wants an arms race.

Dream on, fantasists.

The odds of a tumbling satellite hitting a populated area are small, but this 5,000-pound thing is the size of a bus and it has enough toxic fuel in it to ignite two football fields if it hits the ground in one piece. So why not try to shoot it out of the air, dispersing its parts and fuel?

As far as the intimidation factor goes, keep in mind, we could miss. It isn’t so easy to knock out a target plunging from outer space. In fact, nothing like it has been done since 1985, when an Air Force F-15 fired a three-stage missile into a drifting solar-monitoring satellite. If the Navy’s SM-3 missile misses this time, it could be embarrassing. But why not take the chance?

Practice making perfect. Some will argue the Pentagon just wants to play with its “toys.” But isn’t it better to test our anti-missile missiles, rather than wait until the day they’re needed to stop something much more dangerous?

It only makes sense to try out that SM-3 missile on something that counts. As things stand, a Navy cruiser in the Pacific Ocean probably will launch the missile sometime between Feb. 20 and March 6. Hit or miss, we’ll learn something about how prepared we are.

Frank Warner

Did JFK leave a ‘love child’?

Someone named Jack Worthington, a Texan living in Vancouver, Canada, says he believes he is the son of President John F. Kennedy.

Worthington, born Nov. 22, 1961, wants DNA testing for him and the living Kennedys. He says the tests will prove the president was his father. But Worthington shows no evidence of a relationship between his mother and JFK, and he seems to believe weirdly that his birth could be linked to Kennedy’s assassination (on Worthington’s second birthday).

He says then-Vice President Lyndon Johnson introduced his mother to JFK, and, of course, that makes JFK his father. Hmm...

The DNA could tell, but this guy looks flaky.

Frank Warner

Is a ‘housing bubble’ bursting, or are housing prices dipping slightly to a ‘new equilibrium’?

Many of us have seen Robert Shiller’s chart showing how U.S. housing prices ballooned -- “like a bubble” -- from 1997 to 2006. But was it really a “bubble”?

Did housing prices in that decade rise artificially high, and was the “bubble” destined to burst? (And has it burst yet?) Click on the graph to enlarge.

Alex Tabarrok argues that, while American housing prices rose about 83 percent, adjusted for inflation, from 1997 to 2006, they are unlikely now to drop 78 percent (They’ve already dropped 5 percent) to return to the “normal” prices we saw from 1950 to 1997.

Step up in price. Tabarrok says we’re more likely to see a “new equilibrium” in housing prices. It would be higher than that 1950-97 period, but he points out that those post-World War II prices were significantly higher than before the war, higher even than before the Depression.

Homeowners hope we’ve hit the “new equilibrium” already. Potential home buyers hope that, if the “bubble” isn’t bursting, it shrinks a little more.

Frank Warner

Bloody Hezbollah leader is killed in Syria

Imad Mugniyah, longtime Hezbollah terrorist leader, was killed two nights ago by a car bomb in Damascus, Syria. This is big. Mugniyah, 45, had caused so much suffering in Lebanon and Israel that justice was long overdue.

Among the many atrocities reportedly planned by Mugniyah was the suicide bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon in 1983. Two hundred forty-one Marines died.

The most intriguing aspect of this thug’s assassination is where it happened: in Damascus, Syria, where so many Hezbollah terrorists think they can run after each murder without fear of capture or penalty. The safe haven appears to have disappeared.

Frank Warner

‘Superdelegates’ won’t matter for Hillary Clinton

A bunch of news stories are saying the Democrats’ 796 “superdelegates” can give Hillary Clinton the presidential nomination in August. I don’t think so.

To win the party’s nomination, Clinton or Barack Obama will need the votes of at least 2,025 of the convention’s 4,049 delegates. (Note: 3,253 of the delegates will have been chosen democratically by normal Democrats, in primaries and caucuses.)

Clinton had been leading for a few weeks by counting in those of the selected “superdelegates” who have expressed their preference. Now that has changed.

The Obama lead. Even counting the declared “superdelegates,” Obama leads Clinton, 1,275 delegates to 1,220, according The Associated Press. And the momentum has turned Obama’s way. Soon, we’re likely to see those weaselly “superdelegates” switching to Obama.

The tide could turn one more time, but unless Clinton does something dramatic or Obama stumbles unexpectedly, Obama is on his way to an historic match-up with John McCain.

Frank Warner

Tracking down who put the Cuba-Che flag in Obama’s office

There’s some good sleuthing here. The Long Star Times comes up with the woman most likely to have put up the flag, in the Barack Obama campaign office in Houston, saluting slavery and mass murder.

Yes, there are some personality worshippers on the Obama bandwagon. But unlike Che Guevara and the moron with that flag, Obama appears to favor free speech, a free press, independent courts and free elections.

Frank Warner

The Clinton campaign is going down

I thought Barack Obama had the Democratic nomination after the Iowa caucuses, but then Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire and it seemed the Clintons were destined for dynasty.

Now it appears otherwise. Obama keeps winning and the momentum is so clear that Hillary Clinton will not even acknowledge her losses. Bill Clinton's old campaign manager is following another star, and others are abandoning the Clinton ship. This year, it appears the two major parties will offer us John McCain and Barack Obama for president.

Now, if Obama, as young and inexperienced as he is, can keep the walls clean when that Houston office becomes "official," maybe he'll have a chance. And McCain, as old and often-wise as he is, is not to be counted out.

Frank Warner

John McCain rebukes Fidel Castro over the Cubans who tortured POWs at the Hanoi Hilton

One wonderful day eight years ago, Sen. John McCain was visiting Saigon (only the dictatorship calls it Ho Chi Minh City) when he commented loud enough for all to hear, “The wrong guys won” the Vietnam War.

“I think that the wrong guys won. I think that they lost millions of their best people who left by boat, thousands by executions and hundreds of thousands who went to re-education camps,” he said.

The year before, McCain wrote a book about his five-year imprisonment and torture by the North Vietnamese Communists who defeated the South Vietnamese in 1975, spreading their totalitarian oppression.

Communist Cuban sadists. Now he has more to say to Fidel Castro.

His book, “Faith of Our Fathers,” also happened to describe the torture of American POWs by at least two Cuban sadists who were sent from Havana to the “Hanoi Hilton” and other prison camps to help Castro’s fellow tyrants.

Of course, in Castro’s version of history, Castro is never guilty of anything but underestimating his own greatness. And now, having read a translated copy of McCain’s book (available to any other Cubans?), Castro is calling McCain a liar for revealing the abuse by Castro’s agents.

“His accusations against internationalist Cuban revolutionaries...are completely unethical,” Castro wrote two days ago in the Granma newspaper, which is run by Castro’s police state. “Let me remind you, Mr McCain. The commandments of the religion you practice prohibit lying.”

One in particular. McCain said Castro’s record of human rights abuse speaks for itself.

“For me to respond to Fidel Castro who...is one of the most brutal dictators on Earth, for me to dignify any comments he might make is certainly beneath me,” he said the day Castro’s comments were published.

But McCain also told Florida voters on Jan. 25:

“There’s a person I want you to help me find when Cuba is free, and that’s that Cuban that came to the prison camps of North Vietnam and tortured and killed my friends. We’ll get him and bring him to justice, too.”

Castro’s slave nation. Few remember today that the United States was the first government on Earth to recognize Castro’s regime when his forces toppled Batista’s seven-year dictatorship in 1959 and promised equality, justice and free elections in Cuba. President Eisenhower soon regretted that mistake.

Except for one premature attempt to remove Castro in 1961, the United States looked the other way as Castro transformed Cuba into a massive camp of slaves.

The next U.S. president will have to help guide Cuba to the freedom against which Castro has used torture and murder for half a century. McCain has some good ideas here.

Frank Warner

Barack Obama on Iraq: ‘I reserve the right … to assess the situation’

On “60 Minutes” two days ago, Sen. Barack Obama said that, if elected presidenet, he would not withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq if it was obvious that keeping troops there would help.

It was a reasonable position from someone constantly urged by Democratic Party activists to embrace an unreasonable position -- defeat.

Here’s what Obama said in the interview with CBS News’ Steve Kroft:

“What do you think of what’s going on in Iraq right now?” Kroft asked.

“Well, I think, on the positive side, we’ve seen a reduction in violence. And I don’t think anybody can deny that,” Obama said. “What we haven’t seen is the kind of political reconciliation or accommodation between the Sunni and the Shia and the Kurds that are required in order for Iraq to stabilize. But I completely reject the notion, you know, most forcefully presented by John McCain that we should commit ourselves to a 50-year or a 60-year or a 100-year occupation in order to assure stability in Iraq. I think that is a recipe for disaster.”

“At a time when American casualties are down, at a time when the violence is down, particularly affecting the Iraqi population, is that the right time to try and set time tables for withdrawing all American troops? I mean you talked about…the end of 2009,” Kroft remarked.

“Yeah, absolutely. I think now is precisely the time. I think that it is very important for us to send a clear signal to the Iraqis that we are not gonna be here permanently. We’re not gonna set up permanent bases. That they are going to have to resolve their differences and get their country functioning,” Obama said.

“And you pull out according to that time table, regardless of the situation? Even if there’s serious sectarian violence?” Kroft asked.

“No, I always reserve as commander in chief, the right to assess the situation,” Obama replied.

More responsible stand. Now that Obama’s only serious Democratic rival is Sen. Hillary Clinton, who voted to authorize the liberation of Iraq in 2002, it appears he feels freer to take a more responsible position on the future of democracy in Iraq. This is a hopeful development.

Frank Warner

O, say, can you see Che? What’s up on Obama’s Houston wall?

If that Cuban flag with Che Guevara’s picture on it is still up on the wall of Barack Obama’s Houston campaign office this morning, that’s it, I’m not voting for Obama.

I didn’t care if Obama didn’t wear an American flag on his lapel. I don’t care if he burns an American flag. As an American, that’s his right. But a Cuba-Che flag is wrong.

I’ve been inspired by the sense of optimism that Obama’s campaign has brought to politics. However, as an American running for president of the United States, he has a responsibility to stand up for freedom and oppose repression. He can’t allow a staff member to fly a flag that is directly tied to a mass murderer who helped form the police state that has denied Cubans a taste of freedom for nearly half a century.

Death star and stripes. So what’s it going to be? Does that blood-spattered banner of totalitarianism yet wave? Does the Obama office still honor the dentist of despotism?

If Obama wants to stand for democracy, liberty and liberalism, he’s got my vote. If he wants to stand with the world’s tyrants, he’s got a lot of gall asking free people to vote for chains.

Free Frank to Houston: What’s up on that wall this morning?

Frank Warner

Update: Barack Obama's campaign issues a statement: Apparently quoting the local Houston TV station, Obama's campaign reports, "The office featured in this video is funded by volunteers of the Barack Obama Campaign and is not an official headquarters for his campaign."

The Obama statement is entitled, "On Reports of an Inappropriate Flag in a Texas Obama Office." So is Obama calling the Cuba-Che Guevara flag "inappropriate"? Or is he just saying he's heard "reports of an inappropriate flag," but he himself doesn't consider it inappropriate?

And IS THAT FLAG STILL UP? Has Obama asked anyone to take it down?

A picture of Che Guevara hangs in Barack Obama’s Houston office?

You know, I’ve spent the last month hoping I can vote for Barack Obama for president. I agree with him on the domestic liberal agenda, and he seems a little more responsible than the others on really fixing Social Security. I disagree with him on liberating Iraq, but I’ve told myself that General Petraeus has made it safe to vote for Democrat.

But now this. In Obama’s Houston campaign office, someone has hung a Cuban flag with a picture of totalitarian mass murderer Che Guevara on it. Enough’s enough. If that flag isn’t down by dawn tomorrow, and if the person who hung it isn’t fired, there goes any chance I’ll vote for Obama.

There are some things an American president has to understand. Freedom is one of them.

Frank Warner

Congressman Tom Lantos, who chided Europe, is dead

Congressman Tom Lantos, who four months ago said “Europe was not as outraged by Auschwitz as by Guantanamo Bay,” has died. He was 80.

We’ll miss straight talk like that.

Frank Warner

No ‘superdelegates’: Let the Democratic presidential nominee be ‘the will of the people’

Almost eight years ago, Senator-elect Hillary Clinton called for the abolition of the Electoral College:

“I’ve always thought we had outlived the need for an Electoral College,” she said Nov. 10, 2000. “And now that I am going to the Senate, I am going to try to do what I can to make clear that the popular vote, the will of the people, should be followed.”

Well, the will of the people also should be followed in nominating the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. As things stand, Sen. Barack Obama has a slight lead in the number of Democratic Party delegates (about 919-907) chosen by Democratic voters’ primary and caucus ballots this year, but with some of the 796 unelected “superdelegates” disclosing their preferences, Clinton has the apparent lead (about 1,055 to 998).

‘Judgment of the voters.’ Obama thinks he should have the lead the voters gave him, and the party bosses should not have given Clinton the lead by selecting “superdelegates.”

“My strong belief is that if we end up with the most states and the most pledged delegates from the most voters in the country, that it would be problematic for the political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters,” he said three days ago. “I think it is also important for superdelegates to think about who will be in the strongest position to defeat John McCain in November and who will be in the strongest position to ensure that we are broadening the base, bringing people who historically have not gotten involved in politics into the fold.”

At the Democratic convention in Denver in August, a candidate will need at least 2,025 of the 4,049 delegates to win the nomination. If those “superdelegates” are decisive, if they give the nomination to the candidate without the popular vote, against “the will of the people,” how can that candidate consider himself or herself legitimate?

That Electoral College. Note that abolishing the Electoral College was the first thing Hillary Clinton called for after her election to the Senate. Note also she then did absolutely nothing to abolish the Electoral College. (Remember also health-care reform, the Kyoto treaty, saving Social Security and the Iraq Liberation Act.) All talk. That’s experience, the Clinton way.

Frank Warner

* * *

This just in: Sen. Joe Lieberman has lost his seat as a Democratic convention “superdelegate.” The reason: Lieberman, an independent Democrat, endorsed Republican Sen. John McCain. The lesson: The party bigwigs who arbitrarily give out “superdelegate” seats also can arbitrarily take back “superdelegate” seats.

No talk of ‘pimps,’ prostitutes or Cohibas: The sex line of defense around the Clintons

Commenter JJ Mollo takes issue with my contention that the threshold for suspending news reporters who offend Republicans is much higher than the threshold for news reporters who offend Democrats.

The case in point, of course, is MSNBC reporter David Shuster, who was suspended Feb. 8 for asking:

“Doesn’t it seem as if Chelsea [Clinton] is sort of being pimped out in some weird sort of way?”

Petraeus pimped. Yet this was on the same network in which President Bush-hater Keith Olbermann last Sept. 20 safely spewed these words at Bush:

“And in pimping General David Petraeus and in the violation of everything this country has been assiduously and vigilantly against for 220 years, you have tried to blur the gleaming radioactive demarcation between the military and the political, and to portray your party as the one associated with the military, and your opponents as the ones somehow antithetical to it.”

Olbermann was not suspended, despite the fact that his remarks appear to have been prepared in advance, not an off-the-cuff question like Shuster’s.

Only one punished. My point wasn’t that Olbermann should have been suspended, too. My point was that neither of these news broadcasters should have been suspended. But the only newsman punished was the one who foolishy offended a Democrat.

Imagine, some pundit saying, during the 2004 campaign,  “Doesn’t it seem as if the Bush twins, Jenna and Barbara, are sort of being pimped out in some weird sort of way?”

The reaction to that would have been,  “That guy’s an idiot” or nothing at all. President Bush and Laura Bush probably wouldn’t have said a thing.

Obvious metaphor. It’s not as if someone directly accused Chelsea Clinton of prostitution. Shuster obviously was using a metaphor, suggesting Chelsea was being forced to do something -- campaign for her mother -- against her will.

But with the Clintons, it’s more than the fact they’re Democrats. It’s that Bill Clinton has a lengthy and lurid record of sexual harassment that the Clintons don’t want mentioned anywhere at any time.

For the Clintons now, the sex-talk zone of defense is so deep it looks positively Puritan. You pull out a cigar and you’re tackled.

Frank Warner

No ‘abettors of iniquity,’ federal courts suddenly are ruling that states and cities may bar illegal immigrants

A federal court last July ordered the city of Hazleton, Pennsylvania, to scrap its laws against illegal immigrants, but things have changed since then. Now other federal courts are ruling that states and cities may take measures against foreigners who are in the country illegally.

Last week, a federal judge in Arizona upheld a state law outlawing employers from knowingly hiring illegal immigrants. On Jan. 31, a federal judge in Missouri ruled in favor of a similar Valley Park city ordinance. And on Dec. 12, a federal judge in Oklahoma backed another similar state law.

In the Oklahoma ruling, Judge James H. Payne wrote:

“These illegal alien plaintiffs seek nothing more than to use this court as a vehicle for their continued unlawful presence in this country. To allow these plaintiffs to do so would make this court an ‘abettor of iniquity,’ and this court finds that simply unpalatable.”

In the Valley Park, Missouri, case, Judge E. Richad Webber said:

“[T]his Court must determine whether the Ordinance in question involves an area of law traditionally governed by the states, the regulation of business licenses, or an area traditionally governed by the Federal government, immigration. The Supreme Court in DeCanas, defined a regulation of immigration as ‘essentially a determination of who should or should not be admitted into the country, and the conditions under which a legal entrant may remain.’ … The Supreme Court further stated that ‘states possess broad authority under their police powers to regulate the employment relationship to protect workers within the state.’ … The Ordinance in question does not address the question of who may or may not enter the United States, and therefore the Court concludes that the Ordinance is a regulation on business licenses, an area historically occupied by the states. …

“The Court in Plyer, also stated that ‘the States do have some authority to act with respect to illegal aliens, at least where such action mirrors federal objectives and furthers a legitimate state goal.’ …

“The Ordinance at issue is not preempted by federal law, to the contrary, federal specifically permits such licensing laws as the one at issue.”

In the Arizona decision, Judge Neil Wake concluded the state law allows employers a fair chance to challenge penalties for hiring illegal aliens:

“No employer may be sanctioned without a full evidentiary hearing in the Superior Court of Arizona. ... The state has the burden to prove that the employer knowingly or intentionally employed an unauthorized alien. The Superior Court has full evidence-taking, fact-finding and discretionary authority on all issues of liability; it simply cannot find an employee unauthorized absent a federal determination to that effect.”

Reason and kindness. I hope all people, including illegal immigrants, are treated with respect in the United States. At the same time, our laws also have to be treated with respect.

For some time, we Americans have been told that our immigration laws are one big loophole that by one technicality or another never allows for controlled borders. That makes no sense. It’s a recipe for lawlessness and cynicism.

We do have a moral obligation to welcome in more foreigners, especially those now living in tyranny. We also have an obligation to regulate who moves in, and the right to say “yes” or “no” at the front door. With reason and kindness, immigration policy can strike the right balance.

Frank Warner

* * *

Note: An “abettor of iniquity” is an accomplice to injustice. Courts frequently have thrown out cases when the plaintiffs obviously were trying to exploit the law to serve unjust ends.

The U.S. Supreme Court has declared that plaintiffs who seek relief must have “clean hands,” must have acted in good faith, and must not be asking for a ruling that would violate the integrity of the courts. In the oft-quoted Bein v. Heath case of 1848, the Supreme Court said, “The equitable powers of this court can never be exerted in behalf of one who has acted fraudulently, or who by deceit or any unfair means has gained an advantage. To aid a party in such a case would make this court the abettor of iniquity.”

Operation Merlin: Why NYT’s James Risen has been subpoenaed over leaked national-security secrets

In his book, “State of War,” James Risen, reporter for The New York Times, wrote that the U.S. government tried to give the Iranian theocracy bad blueprints for an atom bomb trigger.

According to Risen, the plot was part of Operation Merlin.

On January 24, a federal grand jury subpoenaed Risen to explain where he got secret information for the book. So far, it’s not clear which part of “State of War” the grand jury is looking into, but Operation Merlin is a likely candidate.

Not in The Times. Gabriel Schoenfeld, in “Not Every Leak is Fit to Print,” reports:

The New York Times, which published some of the revelations in Risen’s book--most notably his reporting about the NSA’s Terrorist Surv