The NIE on Iran’s nuclear program: Seems whacky

Two things on the new National Intelligence Estimate, which concludes Iran stopped its atomic bomb-making program in 2003:

First, isn’t this report from the same people who told us five years ago with “high confidence” that Saddam Hussein was expanding large stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, and told us two years ago they had “high confidence” Iran still was building a bomb?

Second, and more importantly, isn’t highly enriched uranium usually the one ingredient of a nuclear weapon that is most difficult to obtain? And hasn’t Iran been building thousands of centrifuges to make this highly enriched uranium?

Iran has the atomic bomb kit. It put the other parts on a shelf, but it continues to make the most important part. What am I missing here? How does this prove Iran stopped making a bomb?

Frank Warner

* * *

Afterthought:

The hopeful thing about the NIE report, accurate or inaccurate as it may be, is that it may reduce the incentive for Iran’s dictatorship to complete an atomic weapon.

Before the report, the Iranian people took pride in the idea that they were building nuclear weapons. After the report, they’re more likely to take pride in the idea that they’re not building nuclear weapons.

This could be one of those rare high-stakes win-win situations.

Openness is vital. Contrary to the conspiracy theories, Bush doesn’t want to bomb Iran and probably won't. But he doesn't want to leave uncertain risks to the next president, either. If a new “no-bombs” attitude really takes hold in Iran, the theocracy will open up its facilities enough to prove its nuclear program is for electricity alone.

The trouble is, it is not in the nature of dictatorship to be open. Much of a dictatorship’s power is derived from secrecy and unaccountability. That’s why we need new international laws to strictly regulate how dictatorships use nuclear power, and to encourage a prompt end to repression everywhere.

Comments

[George]

The is is a plot by the U.S. administration to undermine Ahmadinejad who thrives on the threat of a U.S. attack on Iran. Without the facade of standing up against an imminent attack, Ahmadinejad has nothing. Furthermore, Iranians have to be asking "where is this nuclear program he has been touting all this time?"

This is the beginning of the end for Ahmadinejad.

[Christopher Taylor]

Yeah something about this smells bad, and I wonder if we won't find out in the end it was cooked up to derail attempts to drum up pressure on Iran.

[Joe]

You are an absolute moron. 1st of enriched uranium is not hard to get. Second off, enriched uranium is used in more than just bombs, primarily it is used in reactors
thirdly, mr moron, under the NPT enriching uranium for use in nuclear reactors is perfectly legal. A nuclear weapon isn't half as scary as a biological one. Or half as easy to make.
Finally, if Iran has a bomb, so what? They are going to blow us up? Remember the U.S.S.R, they were portrayed as being just as unstable as iran, their finger on the trigger. Well, we are still here.
Keep up the fear mongering, there are some who don't buy it. Do better research.

P.S,- Enriched uranium is only one way of making a bomb, Plutonium, and for the more advanced hobbyist, hydrogen bombs are affective as well.

[jj mollo]

Disinformation is the biggest weapon in this war. I have no idea what's going on, but speculation sure is fun. I'm inclined to agree with George. It would be entertaining to mess with A-jad's head. I don't really think he has that much power, so maybe we're really messing with the Mullahs' heads. Or maybe we want them to fight with each other. It is interesting that Saddam's WMDs were probably phantoms (for the most part) to keep the Iranians at bay. Maybe the Iranians thought that was a good idea. It reminds me of an old joke where the [ethnic group deleted] army defeats the [ethnic group deleted] army by pointing wooden guns and shouting, "Bang! Bang! Bang!" They were unprepared for the counter attack, though. Two guys banging trash can lids together stomped all over them shouting, "Tankety, tankety, tank!"

------

On the other hand, it might be Bush's way of keeping his own people quiet. The pressure to do something about Iran might have been getting unmanageable. Most likely, though, it's a screw up of some sort. The question then becomes whether the information is screwed up, the leak was a mistake, or nobody in the Admin knew about the report until it was leaked.

[jj mollo]

Joe,

Frank specified highly enriched uranium. Although I don't think enriched uranium is really that easy to obtain either. Do you have any?

By the way, I don't think thermo-nuclear devices have any particular emotional responses to their environment.

[George]

Joe wrote: "thirdly, mr moron, under the NPT enriching uranium for use in nuclear reactors is perfectly legal."

Yes, but only under specific conditions which include oversight by the IAEA. Iran has failed to fully cooperate with the IAEA. Thus, it would be illegal, Mr. Smart Guy.

[jj mollo]

The USSR was a formidable enemy whose behavior was not entirely predictable. The fact that we are still here today was not necessarily a forgone conclusion. It is due to the lifetimes of effort invested by thousands of remarkable people who wished to preserve civilization and freedom for everyone, including the Russian people. They knew that people like you, Joe, might not give much credit to their efforts, and that people like you would be among the survivors ... but they did it anyway.

[Frank Warner]

Don't be afraid, Joe. Just keep your eyes open.

[Frank Warner]

The promising thing about the NIE report, accurate or inaccurate as it may be, is that it may reduce the incentive for Iran’s dictatorship to complete an atomic weapon.

Before the report, the Iranian people were taking pride in the idea that they were building nuclear weapons. After the report, they’re more likely to take pride in the idea that they’re not building nuclear weapons.

The outcome of all this depends on the totally secretive decisions of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei, but this could be one of those rare big-stakes win-win situations.

Contrary to the conspiracy theories, Bush doesn’t want to bomb Iran. If the new “no-bombs” attitude sinks in, Iran will open up its facilities enough to prove its nuclear program is for electricity alone.

[jj mollo]

That is an interesting point. You know that it has to have some effect on the Iranians. I don't know if anyone could really predict what that effect would be. I wonder if the people who caused this report to be published took that into consideration. I suspect that the domestic effects were the primary consideration.

[jj mollo]

I just remembered an older post on the Belmont Club that had something to say about tracking nuclear intentions. Scan down to the comment by JMS about the uses of polonium.

[Frank Warner]

That is interesting, JJ. And it's all right in front of our own eyes.

Now Iran says it will start it's first nuclear power plant next year. Let's see if it really produces electricity.