Iran’s impending invasion of Israel: What’s to stop it?

Take a look at the map. Today, the only thing blocking an Iranian invasion of Israel is Iraq. Iran needs only to arrange the transportation of its army and suicide bombers those 150 miles. Then the coast is clear.

Iran is ready to announce “a surprise” involving its nuclear program within a few days. That’s probably bluster. But what if, beyond any outsider’s wildest expectations, Iran already has a few nuclear weapons?

What if it has had a secret uranium reprocessor since 1995, and it has all the plutonium it needs for atom bombs? Or what if it bought two or three atom bombs from North Korea? Is that so implausible?

Syrian connection. Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made no secret his desire to remove Israel from the map. If he had a few nuclear weapons, he’d probably believe he had a chance of accomplishing his diabolical goal.

Iran can’t count on its puny air force, but Ahmadinejad could attack Israel without air power. He gradually could build up Iran’s military presence in Syria, where dictator Bashar Assad fears Iran too much to say no. Then, with the help of the Syrian army and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the invasion of Israel could begin. Iran’s army, fanatical Revolutionary Guards Corps and suicide children could do some major damage.

Jordan might not help Iran, but Syria would pave Iran’s way. Right now, Assad is objecting to the United Nations plan to place U.N. peacekeepers on the Lebanon-Syria border. Why would Assad have this objection, if not to clear the path for an Iran-led attack on Israel?

Nuclear showdown. What’s holding Ahmadinejad from an invasion of Israel right now? One thing: His knowledge that Israel has nuclear weapons, and that any invasion threatening Israel’s very survival would be answered by the use of those nuclear weapons.

But all that changes if Iran acquires a few nukes of its own.

If Iran gets a few atom bombs, it can announce that if Israel carries out a nuclear attack on Tehran, Iran will respond with a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv and possibly even Jerusalem. It would be the end of Israel. It would be the end of a lot of things.

Surprise test? But if it came anytime soon, an official announcement that Iran has nuclear weapons would not be taken seriously by itself. After all, the experts say Iran is at last three or four years from having enough material for a bomb.

If Iran wanted credibility for its claim, it would have to prove it. It would have to publicly detonate an atomic bomb. Someday soon, that could be the “surprise” that initiates the ultimate Middle East crisis.

So far, no one has done one practical thing to reduce the chance of such a perilous confrontation. When does the world wake up? When 1 million armed Iranians are lined up at Israel’s border?

Frank Warner

Comments

[jj mollo]

I think this is a pretty extreme scenario. Turkey is an ally of the US and of Israel. They are Islamic, but they are also sane and relatively secular in the governing process. Iraq is an ally of the US. There are no Iranian armies going through there to get to Syria. Furthermore, I'm am not convinced that Syria itself would want an Iranian army on its soil, even if it were just passing through.

They mechanism works like this. The leaders of Iran, Syria, even Saudi Arabia, encourage conspiracy theories and hate propaganda about Jews in order to focus negative feelings away from their own leadership. After they get the hysteria worked to a sufficient temperature, then they step into the role of "hero of Islam" by taking some relatively meaningless action against Israel, or arming themselves in order, they say, to fight Israel, but really to suppress their own people. Saddam was the master of this art. Hizb'Allah is the current champion. They made a mistake by relying too heavily on Israel's restraint, but it has worked out to their advantage. Their leader, Nastyrullah, is currently the BMOC of the Arab world.

It is true that the population of Iran outnumbers Israel by ten to one, but Israel's GDP is close to Irans, plus 1) they are better educated, 2) they are better armed, 3) they are fighting for their lives and the existence of their country, and 4they have a friend whose GDP represents a quarter of all economic activity on the planet.

[Frank Warner]

I didn't mean to imply Turkey would be involved, but it's my fault for showing the arrow over Turkey. I was trying to indicate the Iranians would have to jump that Iraqi 150 miles somehow, possibly by commercial planes flying to Syria over a period of months.

Saudi Arabia certainly would not aid Iran either. The Saudis are 100 percent Sunni and Arab.

But Iran's alliance with Syria and southern Lebanon is a strong strategic advantage. It could be fatal to Israel.

[jj mollo]

As I understand it, there are Shiites who live in SA, particularly around the oil fields. This is one reason that SA fears Iran's expansion.

[Frank Warner]

I hadn't heard that. Let's check ...

I was exaggerating, but it looks like Saudi Arabia is 85 to 90 percent Sunni Muslim. The 10 to 15 percent Shiites can't have too much sway, but yes, they are in the oil-rich province of al-Hasa.

And while we're at it, I've been wondering why Syria is so attached to Iran. Are they just scared? Or are they largely Shiite. Let's check ...

Apparently, most Syrians are Alawite Muslim, which supposedly rejects Iran's expansionism in favor of Arab nationalism. Nevertheless, Syria is being overwhelmed by Iran's financial and military influence.